Posted On Tuesday, June 26, 2012 at 08:28:09 AM
Even as the India Meteorological Department (IMD) keeps revising its predictions for rain, a researcher from the city has predicted that the city will receive sufficient rain between July 10 and August 17.
The prediction has been made based on observations in environment. The researcher Vijay Bhat of Bibwewadi, is so sure about his prediction that he has asked the IMD to take into account his methodology.
Bhat said that according to the Indian calendar, there will be ample rain during the month of Shravan (falling between July-August). The forecast has been made keeping in mind the requirements of farmers who need rains during the sowing season. Bhat, who has an MSc in Agriculture, was on the governing body of the Hydrology Project of Water Resources Department of the State government.
“There were signs in nature to indicate that rains will begin on June 24. For example, the lapwings have already laid their eggs in deep places and their offspring have hatched. Also, one could see red stripes on the eastern horizon of the city which is usually seen three days prior to the rains. Also, red ants change the structures of their nests and black ants move their eggs,” he said.
According to Bhat, localised forecast can be made 192 days before the actual rains occur by observing the movements of birds, animals, insects, colours in the sky, speed and direction of the wind, etc. “IMD should also incorporate these elements into their functioning and set up a system,” he said.
Speaking about this natural method, Bhat said that he worked in a group consisting of three individuals — in Karad, Satara and Wada districts, Thane and Jalgaon. Each of them studied the movement of wind on Akshay Tritiya.
He explained that the observations of the wind made after every 24 minutes on the day gives an indication of rain expected in each month. “If there is no wind, it means that rainfall during the season will be good on the whole. These observations have been made based on the ancient book Brihat-Samhita by Varahmihira,” Bhat said.
Bhat also added that he has been correctly predicting the rainfall in this manner for the past nine years and will conduct a training session in September so that people will be able to make their own observations and predictions to forecast rain.
Dr Ramchandra Sable, former head of the weather forecasting department of the Mahatma Phule Agricultural College, said, “The old systems only provide a general picture, while minute details are found using new methods.”
Dr A B Majumdar, former dy director, IMD, said, “Our methods are different. Also, his predictions have no scientific basis.”
► There were signs in nature that rains will begin on June 24. IMD should include these elements
- Vijay Bhat